Experts: Iraq verges on civil war
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny-woiraq0512,0,4630319.story?coll=ny-top-headlines
WASHINGTON -- An unchastened insurgency sowed devastation across Iraq Wednesday as experts here said the country is either on the verge of civil war or already in the middle of it.
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With security experts reporting that no major road in the country was safe to travel, some Iraq specialists speculated that the Sunni insurgency was effectively encircling the capital and trying to cut it off from the north, south and west, where there are entrenched Sunni communities. East of Baghdad is a mostly unpopulated desert bordering on Iran.
"It's just political rhetoric to say we are not in a civil war. We've been in a civil war for a long time," said Pat Lang, the former top Middle East intelligence official at the Pentagon.
Here's what I think is going to happen:
- The war will rage on for years. The Bushists are hoping the insurgents will wear themselves out through all this activity, that really is their only plan. But the insurgents have huge resources, they are not going to get tired first.
- At some point, the US will have to pull out. Our armed forces are structured for a quick resolution, not a drawn-out occupation and war lasting years, Vietnam-style. And we are already well past the safe point.
- The US will pull out by "turning over responsibility" to the vichy Iraq forces, in whatever state they are in, even if they are not ready. And they will not be ready by the time the US has to pull out.
- After we pull out the vichy Iraq government will collapse, and Iraq will become a failed state, and a breeding ground for jihadis and terrorists.
- There is not going to be a draft just to save the situation in Iraq. Bush would send every Iraqi to hell before he authorized a draft.